Do the Democrats stand a chance against Trump?

Southbend mayor Pete Buttigieg has dropped out of the democrat race, with Elizabeth Warren also absolving since. Bidens exile into semi-obscurity and a budding dissatisfaction with the ages of the frontrunners briefly allowed experimental candidates such as Andrew Yang and Pete Buttiegieg to take the stage, while overtly ‘political’ candidates like Kamala Harris, who’s illustrious […]

Jude Mockridge
9th March 2020
Southbend mayor Pete Buttigieg has dropped out of the democrat race, with Elizabeth Warren also absolving since. Bidens exile into semi-obscurity and a budding dissatisfaction with the ages of the frontrunners briefly allowed experimental candidates such as Andrew Yang and Pete Buttiegieg to take the stage, while overtly ‘political’ candidates like Kamala Harris, who’s illustrious legal career does not match a particular desire for ‘qualified’, were among the earliest to drop out.

Bernie and Biden’s battleplans each play to different consequences of Trump's presidency. Bernie, the only democrat candidate to effectively distance himself from Obama (which in the context of American politics, constitutes not having him gas you up on campaign ads), promises to double down on Obama’s healthcare efforts, ostracising him from right-wing identity voters.

However, Bernie has a polarising crossover with Trump voters, with 15% of his 2016 midwestern primary voters not only abandoning their party, but voting for Trump.

Middle America has a surprising affinity for Bernie, like Trump, he has constant momentum behind him.

His name affiliated with an image of a reformed politics as opposed to a shiny career or a spiritual predecessor.

Like Trump, he is firmly anti-establishment and a political outsider. His electoral hopes therefore rely on 2 things, his access to new voters, which his successes in California would paint favourably, and his conversion or theft of the “silent majority”.

Biden, a definitely centrist candidate, may hope to destabilise voting patterns along pre-trump lines. He posits that upon Trump's election, republicans will recognise him as an “aberration”, return to the centre, and given his political credence and a lack of credible opponent, vote for him instead.

His victories in North Carolina, referred to as the key to the south, and other swing states like Pensyllvania illustrate a promising picture. Another establishment candidate like Biden, coupled with Biden’s success, could strengthen Trumps grip on the midwest. Furthermore, neither have appealed to black voters in the way Obama or Clinton did, and the two have yet to seize the goldmine of Trump inadequacies on a level of electoral success.

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