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10 year forecast: Brexit

Written by Comment

The most terrifying aspect of Brexit is not only its ever delayed imminence, but the fact that no one knows quite what will happen if it carries through. In ten years, will Britain resurge from the ashes of a great empire? Probably not. It is more likely to still be struggling in the aftermath of a difficult transition.

As a European immigrant, I can testify the looming sense of urgency that settled on the 3.6 million EU immigrants after the results came in back in 2016. It is not only about the practical implications that Brexit will have on our lives, spanning from employment to travelling; but rather, the feeling of living in a country who categorically reject the type of international collaboration that immigrants depend on. Since 2016, migration has fallen, hitting its lowest levels since 2013. In the next ten years, it is therefore likely that migration will continue to decrease, regardless of whether Brexit is delivered or continuously delayed; unless of course the government manages to both deliver Brexit and reinforce a pro-immigration stance, which let’s be honest, is just not going to happen. This will most likely reverberate across the economy, as the value of migrants has been well documented.

With this in mind, it is in fact possible that Brexit will not have actually taken place in ten years time. In fact, despite PM Boris Johnson stating that he would rather “die in a ditch” than delay Brexit, Brexit was once again delayed. The only certainty regarding Brexit in ten years is that, in one way or another, it will continue to negatively impact the lives of citizens, either by seeking to settle after a strenuous transition, or eventually snapping under the constant pressure of an impending catastrophe.

Last modified: 4th December 2019

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