Local Elections and the Runcorn and Helsby By-Election. What has happened?

Are Reform the new major political force in British politics?

Callum Borkowski
26th May 2025
Flickr_House of Commons
After the local elections and by-election on 1 May the UK electorate witnessed the end of the two-party system. Across England, over 1,600 council seats were contested across 23 councils, as well as six mayoral elections and a parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby.

The elections saw the surge of Nigel Farage’s Reform UK at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives, who both saw their support plummet. The political start-up went from 0 councillors to an astonishing 677. Marking a shift in voter attitudes, who largely appear to no longer trust the two former largest parties. Ultimately, Reform UK took control of 10 councils, Durham being one such example.

The Tories suffered multiple electoral fatalities as they lost control of all 16 councils that they previously held, losing a staggering 674 seats. The party were the victim of voters moving both to Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats. The former gained control of 3 councils, with them becoming the second largest party at the local level with 370 councillors.

As for the governing Labour party they are now ranked as the fourth largest party at the local level, having lost a significant 187 councillors leaving them with a minor 98. Prime Minister Keir Starmer told Sky News, “I get it… We must deliver that change even more quickly”.

However, Reform UK appears to be the change the British people want.

However, Reform UK appears to be the change the British people want. It will be interesting to see if Reform UK can prove their ability to govern at a local level and demonstrate that they are no longer a protest party. Yet, a lot of scepticism remains considering the party’s lack of governing experience.

As for the mayoral elections, Labour achieved better results, winning in Doncaster, North Tyneside and the West of England. Although by no means were these victories with a strong majority, as all these mayoral elections saw Reform behind Labour on margins of less than 3%. Specifically, by 0.8% in North Tyneside.

Regarding Reform UK they won two mayorships, with former Tory, Andrea Jenkyns in Greater Lincolnshire and Luke Campbell winning in Hull and East Yorkshire. The Tories managed to win mayorship of Cambridge and Peterborough, their only notable achievement. Reform’s further electoral success in the mayoral elections mark a substantial swing from the electorate towards the populist right of the political spectrum.

During Reform’s first female MP’s victory speech, she stated, “The people of Runcorn and Helsby have spoken – enough is enough. Enough Tory failure, enough Labour lies.”

Arguably, the most anticipated election result was the parliamentary by-election in Runcorn and Helsby that came about following Labour MP Mike Amesbury’s resignation due to him assaulting a constituent. Reform UK gained their fifth MP, Sarah Pochin, after she overturned a majority of 14,969 - a swing of 17.4%.

Remarkably, she won with a margin of 6 votes. During Reform’s first female MP’s victory speech, she stated, “The people of Runcorn and Helsby have spoken – enough is enough. Enough Tory failure, enough Labour lies.”  Reform’s notable victory in a Labour safe seat raises questions of how much of an impact they could make elsewhere.

Looking forward to the 2029 general election, Reform UK are predicted to win. A YouGov opinion poll dated 12 May 2025 saw Reform in the lead with 28%, Labour on 23% and the Conservatives on 18%. Farage told Sky News, “We are now the opposition party in the United Kingdom to the Labour Party. The Tories frankly are a waste of space”.  It is important to remember that there are still four years for the electorate’s opinions to change.

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