Anticipating the 2024 US Presidential Field

One writer discusses the layout for the upcoming 2024 election

Sam Norman
12th December 2022
Image Credit: AllHipHop.com

Tis the most wonderful time of the year... mid-terms are out of the way, and now all eyes look to 2024 as the next American Presidential race begins. Exploratory committees are soon to be formed, jabs taken at opponents and the first few names are already thrown into the hat, it’s time to take a look at the predicted field.

Donald Trump – Former President of the United States.

If starting with the Republican side, the only candidate to start with is the former President. Trump announced his run on November 15th and frankly, no one was surprised. Does the businessman stand a chance? In a word, no. Trump’s time has gone. Losing an election and blaming fraud, and not even to mention January 6thhave dampened his reputation and it’s clear he’s lost touch with his base. Will he get to the final 2 in the primary? Probably. Will he win his primary? Not a chance. But who’s to say he won’t run independently… 

Likelihood of becoming President again: 1/10.

Ron DeSantis – Governor of Florida 

At the time of writing, DeSantis is the odds-on favourite to win the whole thing – part due to an incredible performance in the mid-terms. The Republican Governor is beloved in Florida and his popularity is only growing in the party. Should he (likely) win the primary, the right VP pick would give him an incredible edge in the 2024 race.

Likelihood of winning the 2024 race: 8/10

Nikki Haley – American Diplomat and Former Governor of South Carolina.

Nikki Haley may be an outside Republican bet, but I wouldn’t doubt her. A former Trump ally, turned enemy, Haley could make a stunning VP for DeSantis or a formidable candidate within her own right. 

Likelihood of winning the 2024 race: 5/10

Honourable Mentions for Republican Candidates: Gov. Christopher Sununu, Former VP Mike Pence, Sen. Josh Hawley.

Joe Biden – Incumbent President of the United States 

As current President Biden stands as the obvious choice for the Democratic nominee, but given his age, no one would be surprised to see him pass the sword onto a younger candidate.

Likelihood of winning another four years: 6/10

Kamala Harris – Incumbent Vice President of the United States

If Biden was to stand aside, the natural candidate would be Kamala Harris. Though, looking back at her 2020 Presidential campaign, she must exhibit how she has evolved since, as a similar performance would be an embarrassment for the VP. With no standout successes as VP to campaign on, going up against a strong Republican or a challenging Democrat in the primary, Harris may struggle.

Likelihood of becoming President: 3/10 through an election… but there’s always the other way.

Pete Buttigieg – Incumbent Secretary of Transportation  

This challenge may come from current Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg. The former Mayor Pete had a career-defining performance in the 2020 Democratic Primary, going further than most would have expected for a relatively unknown candidate. Pete would top my list of preferred candidates, and should he run, though may still be a few years premature, should his campaign build on 2020, he stands a better shot than most.

Likelihood of becoming President: 5/10

Honourable Mentions for Democratic Candidates: Gov. Gavin Newsom, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Sen. Jon Ossoff.

Wild Card: Kanye West 

As of writing Mr. West is the only other candidate than Trump to formally announce. Who says Kanye and his new bestie conservative commentator Candace Owens won’t storm the White House together? Likely 99% of Americans. The 2024 election will no doubt get very dark and bitter, so if you want to look for light amongst the darkness, get some humour out of Kanye West’s second run for President of the United States – a sentence that’s bizarre to say. 

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AUTHOR: Sam Norman
Head of Current Affairs 23/24. Campus Comment Sub-editor 22/23. BA English Language and Literature Student.

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