Conclave IRL: What could happen with a new pope?

Disclaimer: This article has been written before the election of Leo XIV (previously Cardinal Robert Prevost) on 8 May.

With Pope Francis having been laid down in his final resting place, the college of Cardinals has begun congregating in Rome in preparation for the conclave to decide on the next Pope.

Of the 133 Cardinals who are under 80 years old and subsequently eligible to vote in the Conclave, the late Pontiff appointed a staggering 108 of them. During his pontificacy, Francis pushed to make the Vatican more representative of the many areas of the globe where the catholic church has a strong and growing presence. The 133 cardinals who will decide on the next pope will be of a more diverse mix of nationalities than ever before and the overwhelming majority of them have never participated in a conclave before.

Within the Vatican itself, many are expecting a new pope who will continue Pope Francis's more liberal approach, compared to the Popes who immediately preceded him. While Francis did appoint most of the Cardinals who will choose his successor, this does not guarantee that they will emulate his values in their voting behaviours. In fact, cardinals from outside of Europe and North America, especially in Africa, have been amongst the most outspoken critics of the late Pontiff's tolerant approach. There is an old Italian saying which goes; “he who enters the conclave as Pope leaves as a Cardinal” in reference to the unpredictable and secretive nature of the Conclave.

Of the cardinals likely to become the next Pope, Cardinal Parolin of Italy is seen as a flagship contender because of his strong ties with the previous Pontiff in his role as Cardinal Secretary of State. It follows past precedent that cardinals in this second in command position sometimes follow their leader into the pontificate. For the base of support which elected Francis, Parolin is a natural continuity of his approach as he is seen as a moderate with similar values. However, both Cardinals Tagle (another contender close to the late Francis from the Phillipines) and Parolin have faced accusations of not taking sexual abuse scandals within the church seriously early on.

Of the more conservative Cardinals, there is Cardinals Erdo of Hungary. He opposes divorce and remarriage within the church. Despite this, he is said to be a net-worker who has built links with the more liberal camp of Cardinals. He is also seen as a way to rebuild the church in advanced secular countries.