Despite being a relatively new team to the sport, Red Bull Racing founded in 2005, rise to the top has been nothing short of remarkable. In less than two decades, the team has secured seven drivers' championships and remains a strong contender for victory in the 2024 season. With enough wins to rank 6th among the most successful teams in F1 history, Red Bull’s dominance has been undeniable. Why, then, is there growing speculation of a Red Bull decline in 2024?
One of the most significant developments has been the departure of key figures within the team, who much of the success in recent years can be attributed to. Adrian Newey, chief technical officer at Red Bull, has announced his split after 19 years. It is thought the engineer had lost faith in the team and his signing with Aston Martin Racing as the Managing Technical Partner, could be a bid to make a greater impact in the sport. His exit raises questions about whether Red Bull can maintain its technological edge without him.
Adding to the uncertainty, Jonathan Wheatley, Red Bull’s sporting director, will be leaving to assume the role of Team Principal at Audi in 2026. Wheatley will remain with Red Bull until the end of 2024, before entering a transition period in 2025. Although the move has stirred speculation about internal changes at Red Bull, ultimately the choice appears primarily career related. With no indication of team principal Christian Horner leaving his post, it seems the necessary trajectory for his personal development.
Despite being cleared of any accusations in the summer, Horner’s handling of the situation created some backlash.
Horner himself has faced scrutiny in recent months, largely due to a public scandal that, while resolved in his favour, may have impacted the team’s image. Despite being cleared of any accusations in the summer, Horner’s handling of the situation created some backlash. His dismissive response in a press conference, “let’s get back to racing”, did little to minimize the criticism. Although the scandal has officially subsided, it’s very possible that it caused internal distractions and loss of moral.
Despite starting the season strong, mechanical issues with the RB20 have plagued the team. On the track, Red Bull’s competition has grown fiercer. The team is locked in a tight battle with McLaren, in both the constructor and driver championships. With Charles Leclerc in P3, currently only 35 points behind Lando Norris, Ferrari cannot be discounted in the fight either. At this stage, it seems likely the real competition for the 5 remaining races of the season is for P2 in championship. However, Red Bull could still benefit, as both Norris and Leclerc, hungry for wins in the penultimate races, might lose valuable points battling each other.
Despite the shortcomings and rumours surrounding Red Bull this season, there’s no denying that the team remains amidst the fight at the front of the grid. The contrast to 2023, when Red Bull dominated with unprecedented ease, has perhaps made the challenges of 2024 seem more prominent. Horner himself had pre-emptively acknowledged that such dominance was likely a solitary incidence. Nonetheless, Max Verstappen continues to lead the driver standings comfortably and is the clear favourite to retain his reigning world title in 2024. After securing P1 in the Austin sprint race, Verstappen expressed confidence in the team’s direction, "feels like old times... we are finally racing again." With Verstappen’s steadfast form and recent mechanical improvements, Red Bull remains a formidable force despite the obstacles they’ve faced this season. They’ve weathered tough periods before—such as the 'barren years' following Sebastian Vettel's back-to-back titles—and have always managed to bounce back.
