Scottish Independence Referendum: Will they leave the UK this time?

After the last referendum in 2014 saw Scotland voting to stay in the UK, Sturgeon has announced plans for another referendum this year.

Elisabeth Gores
24th October 2022
Image credit: instagram (@nicolasturgeon)
Nicola Sturgeon has announced that she wants a Scottish independence Referendum to take place on 19 October 2023. The manifestation of this date is now dependent upon the UK Supreme Court ruling deciding if she has the legal authority to do this. Is a new Scottish Independence Referendum unavoidable?

Just over 8 years since the first independence referendum was held in September 2014, with the results being remaining in the UK at 55% to leaving at 45%, this previous vote appeared to have silenced the growing independence debate. However, this was only short lived as talks of a second referendum are back in the air.

The changing factor since then, that has breathed some new life into the independence discourse, is the Brexit vote. The First Minister called for another referendum – indirectly following the leave vote. Scotland was one of the remain strongholds, with 62% voting this way, and the love for Brussels was used as a key argument in the first referendum debate. If Scotland remained in the United Kingdom, it would remain in the European Union by default. However this argument no longer exists, as of 11pm January 31st, 2020. 

So, would this change the tide on Scottish Independence? Polling suggests that average support for independence is at 49% with 51% against, indicating that Brexit, Covid-19 and Johnson’s premiership haven’t turned the tides as much as Sturgeon would have hoped. This slender remain lead isn’t enough to prematurely indicate victory, and this polling further notes that there are fewer undecided votes than during the last referendum, making victory challenging for both sides.

The 2nd independence referendum’s hold up can be attributed to the Westminster Government’s refusal in issuing a Section 30 order for a second time, denying Sturgeon legal referendum consent. Neither Truss nor her predecessor, Johnson support a second vote, believing that in Sturgeons’ own words the referendum was ‘a once in a generation opportunity’ that has come and gone. Instead, an argument stands that prioritisation should be on recovering from the Covid-19 Pandemic, not independence referendums. Sturgeon has remained undeterred by this, pledging to use the next general election as a ‘defacto referendum’ with her party standing on the single issue of independence.

If the vote does take place leading to declared independence, it will only lead to further uncertainties. Will Scotland maintain the Pound as its currency? Will King Charles remain their head of State? Will independent Scotland be successful in re-joining the EU? For now, this all remains to be seen.

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