Leading the race with the support of 33 MPs is Robert Jenrick, who entered Parliament in 2014. Jenrick most recently served as Minister of State for Immigration until December 2023, resigning because he believed the Rwanda scheme “[did] not go far enough”. Appealing to the right-wing of the party, immigration is the key issue around which Jenrick has centred his campaign. He has promised to bring annual migration figures down to the “tens of thousands” should he get into government, which he aims to achieve through leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.
Jenrick’s main challenger is former Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch, who has likewise focused on immigration. Badenoch emphasised in an op-ed she wrote for The Telegraph that the “culture” of immigrants entering Britain “matters even more” than current net migration figures. Her stance has drawn criticism from Jenrick and the right of the party for avoiding the issue of the number of migrants. Despite polls initially suggesting Badenoch had a 16% lead on Jenrick amongst party members, her popularity has recently taken a hit. This is mostly due to Badenoch’s criticism of maternity pay, which she labelled “excessive”. The response to her recent comments does not bode well for Badenoch, and it may impact her odds of reaching the members’ vote.
"Another Truss-type disaster could risk the party's collapse"
With 21 supporters each, both James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat suggest a less hard-right approach to rebuilding the party. Cleverly has focused less on immigration and instead suggests that the party “be more normal”, whilst leveraging his experience in more prominent cabinet roles as Foreign and Home Secretary. The hopeful candidate claims he wants to move towards a united party, believing that voters who turned to Reform UK will be returned through restoring trust and sticking to centre-right political ground. However, Cleverly is not without his more fringe views, having promised to revive the Rwanda scheme if elected Leader.
Tugendhat is the only candidate to speak firmly against moving closer to Reform UK, arguing that: “My job is to reform the Conservative Party, not to become Reform.” While YouGov polling suggests Tugendhat is the most popular Leadership candidate among general voters, due to his relative lack of ministerial experience and his inconsiderable support from MPs, Tugendhat may be next on the chopping block.
As the race narrows, the final weeks will be crucial in determining the future of the Conservatives. With support for the Labour government already declining, a skilled leader could bring the party back to power in just five years time. However, another Truss-type disaster could risk the party’s collapse in an increasingly fragmented political landscape.
