Friedrich Merz and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) technically "won" with 28.6% of the vote, but let’s not pretend this was a triumph. It’s their second-worst post-war result, and Merz now has the unenviable task of forming a coalition in an increasingly fragmented parliament.
The real headline? The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD). Once dismissed as a fringe movement, the far-right party, under Alice Weidel, secured 20.8%, making them the second-largest political force in the Bundestag. A party that was once shunned for its nationalist, anti-immigration, and revisionist rhetoric is now a dominant player in German politics. That’s a sentence that should send shivers down spines—especially in a country where politicians still swear their loyalty to "never again."
And then there’s the Social Democratic Party (SPD), suffering a historic collapse. Outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz led them to 16.4%, their worst result since World War II. The Greens and the Left (Die Linke) had mixed results, but in an election where voters leaned hard to the right, they’re fighting an uphill battle.
Merz faces a significant political challenge. He has firmly ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, citing the party’s history of nationalist rhetoric and its associations with historical revisionism. However, with limited coalition options, his ability to form a stable government is uncertain. The pressure to negotiate with factions that hold controversial positions may grow, testing Germany’s long-standing political norms. Given the country’s historical trajectory, the normalisation of far-right influence in mainstream politics would mark a profound shift in Germany’s post-war consensus.
Germany’s facing economic stagnation, energy crises, and a growing backlash against immigration policies. The AfD capitalised on this anger, promising stricter borders, nationalism, and "taking back control." Sound familiar? It should. We’ve seen this before, in different uniforms and under different banners.
Merz, for his part, is promising tax cuts, deregulation, and tighter immigration controls, hoping to placate both the business community and an increasingly right-leaning electorate. But if his coalition partners resist, his chancellorship could be dead on arrival.
Here’s why Brussels should be sweating:
Far-Right Momentum: If the AfD can gain this much ground in Germany—a country that has gone to extreme lengths to suppress nationalist extremism—what’s stopping similar movements across Europe? The EU is already struggling with right-wing populism in Italy, Hungary, and France. Germany just added fuel to the fire.
A More Independent Germany? Merz has hinted at wanting less reliance on the U.S. and more European-led defence initiatives. That means potential NATO tensions, at a time when European security is already on shaky ground.
Economic Friction: Germany’s next government will decide whether it sticks to EU-driven economic policies or charts its own course. A shift could spark conflict within the bloc, especially if nationalist elements push for policies that put "Germany First."
This election was a turning point, not just for Germany but for Europe as a whole. The rise of the AfD isn’t just a political shift—it’s a historical warning sign. In a country that has spent decades reckoning with its past, the fact that a party with openly nationalist rhetoric is now a dominant force should not be ignored. Germany’s future is uncertain, but one thing is clear: the lessons of history only matter if people remember them.