Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and its future under Trump

Ali Choudhary analyses the impacts that the Trump presidency could have on the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in light of the ceasefire.

Ali Choudhary
17th January 2025
Source: Wikimedia Commons, Gage Skidmore
On November 26, a ceasefire deal between Israel and the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah took effect. US President Joe Biden told reporters that it was “designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities” with both Lebanon and Israel having faced significant pressure from US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, and the president’s special envoy, Amos Hochstein.

In his speech, Biden further declared that the “Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon will not be allowed to be rebuilt” as the Lebanese army re-establishes control in the territory. However the question of whether the army would confront Hezbollah in the event of an escalation remains unanswered whilst sectarian divides could aggravate tensions at any moment. But the sudden ceasefire deal coalescing comes thirteen months after the conflict first began, and curiously close to Donald Trump’s forthcoming second presidential term.

Florida Rep. Mike Waltz, Trump’s elect for national security advisor, was quick to attribute the deal as a victory for Trump, saying “Everyone is coming to the table because of President Trump…His resounding victory sent a clear message to the rest of the world that chaos won’t be tolerated.” This isn’t a complete lie: Jake Sullivan, current national security advisor, did confirm that Waltz was part of the negotiations. As the White House enters its transitional period, this close co-operation indicates that both party leaders are eager to reach agreements on contentious issues like Lebanon.

As the spectre of a Trump White House looms, there is a renewed sense of fear.

But Biden and his federal team looping Trump’s team in discussions rather intimately and unusually invites speculation that Biden is desperate to repair his damaged reputation. He has failed to initiate a permanent ceasefire between Hamas and Israel and been exceedingly criticised both at home and administrations abroad for his failure in holding Israel accountable for Palestinian deaths. As the spectre of a Trump White House looms, there is a renewed sense of fear. Trump vowed to end wars in his victory speech, though not specifying how. In Gaza and the West Bank, would this mean annexing the territory, ethnically cleansing its civilians, or placing mounting pressure on Israel to end its illegal practice of settling Israelis on Palestinian land?

Mike Huckabee, Trump’s elect for US ambassador to Israel, has previously said “there’s really no such thing as a Palestinian” which is a worrying premonition of what’s to come. Tiffany Trump’s father-in-law, Massad Boulos, is a Lebanese American billionaire and Trump’s choice for Senior Advisor on Arab and Middle Eastern Affairs. He claims that Trump is “the only president who can achieve a permanent solution to the Palestinian problem”. Despite Boulos’ Lebanese heritage, his political past offers no real geo-strategic strategy on how peace will be ensured in Lebanon and the surrounding region, demonstrating that this is just an opportunity to further cement political power (and his favourable position in Trump's family).

Trump's questionable choices introduce a future that has no clear national vision, and denote his carelessness, which will be costly if this ceasefire is short-lived.

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