The tax, introduced in October 2024 as part of The Government’s plan to raise funds for state education, was expected to make private schooling unaffordable for many families. Critics, including former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, warned that an exodus from the independent sector could overwhelm public schools. However, reports from councils across England indicate that state school applications have remained stable, and in some areas, placements at first-choice schools have even increased.
In London, where demand for school places is high, the proportion of families securing their top-choice secondary school has risen slightly to 71.6%, according to London Councils, which represents the city’s 33 local authorities. A broader survey of 70 councils across England found that 44 reported an increase in the percentage of pupils receiving their first-choice school compared to the previous year. These figures suggest that fears of a sudden influx of students into the state system have not materialised.
Prior to the VAT’s implementation, The Government estimates projected that an additional 3,000 students would enter state schools in the 2024-25 academic year, with the figure potentially rising to 35,000 over time. However, the latest data suggests that the number of private school students transferring has been minimal, and the state sector has absorbed any increase without significant difficulty.
Meanwhile, the Independent Schools Council (ISC), which represents over 1,400 private institutions, has strongly opposed the tax and is pursuing legal action against The Government. The ISC argues that the policy disproportionately affects middle-income families and could force smaller independent schools to close. Despite these concerns, most private schools have so far managed to retain their students, with only a limited number of families opting for state education.
Additionally, fears that grammar schools would see a surge in applications as families moved away from private education have also proved unfounded. A survey of grammar schools in England found a slight drop in applications for the 11-plus exam, indicating that the VAT has not significantly influenced parental choices regarding selective education.
While the long-term impact of the tax remains uncertain, the initial data suggests that the state sector has not experienced the expected strain, and the predicted exodus from private schools has not occurred.