A week before the opening fixture, Euro 2024 was simulated 10,000 times by Opta’s supercomputer. Results were combined with data from Opta analysts to conclude a quartet of nations with the highest chances of lifting the trophy.
Beginning with the favourites, England were given a 19.9 percent chance of being crowned European champions. Questions over Gareth Southgate’s managerial tenure were voiced before the start of the tournament - England’s lacklustre performances in their opening four matches only added fuel to the fire.
An underwhelming group stage saw England finish top with five points - the least of any group winner
An underwhelming group stage saw England finish top with five points - the least of any group winner with the exception of Group E. Jude Bellingham’s late bicycle-kick equaliser followed by Harry Kane’s header in extra-time combined to save an embarrassing exit in their first knockout game versus Slovakia.
Quarter-final penalties versus a strong Swiss side saw England progress. All five of England’s penalties were scored by players of black heritage - an important acknowledgement after the racial abuse that followed the Euro 2020 final. A late goal by Ollie Watkins in the subsequent semi-final match versus the Netherlands booked England into another Euros final.
A moment of magic from Cole Palmer was not enough to stop the Spanish offensive, continuing the years of hurt for England fans. After eight years in charge, Gareth Southgate resigned. With one of the strongest teams on paper, anything short of the Three Lions lifting the trophy was always going to be considered an underachievement.
France and Germany were tipped as the next strongest tournament favourites; 19.1 and 12.4 percent chance respectively. Germany began the tournament well - they scored the most goals (eight) in the group stages, including five in their opening match against Scotland. After a comfortable victory over Denmark in their first knockout fixture, they met Spain in the quarter-finals. It was here Spain’s dominance became more apparent. A goal in the last minute of extra-time from Mikel Merino caused Germany to bow out, a disappointing result for the home fans.
France managed one better than the host nation, reaching the semi-final stage before also losing to Spain. There was little to no sign of successful attacking football; France managed to score four goals with only one coming from open play. Kylian Mbappé only managed a single goal - converting a penalty against Poland in the group stages.
Spain put on by far the best footballing display and combined defensive organisation with attacking flair
In Opta's final selection, Spain were given a 9.6 percent chance of success. They defied these odds and lifted the trophy, winning every match along the way. Spain put on by far the best footballing display and combined defensive organisation with attacking flair. They had the highest Expected Goals at 13.0 (scoring fifteen in total) and also created the most big chances - 26.
Spain’s road to victory was largely smooth sailing. They were the only nation to take nine points from the group stages and only had to face extra-time once during the knockout phase - versus Germany in the quarter-finals. Whilst the Spanish defence stood strong, conceding only four goals throughout the tournament, it was going forward where Spain shone.
Along with lifting the trophy, Spain did not shy away from awards for individual brilliance. Barcelona’s Lamine Yamal took home Young Player of the Tournament and Goal of the Tournament - becoming the youngest goalscorer in Euros history at the age of 16 years and 362 days. Six Spanish players made the Team of the Tournament: Cucurella, Olmo, Rodri, Fabían, Yamal, and Williams. Additionally, Rodri was awarded Player of the Tournament and Olmo won the Golden Boot - along with five other players. Reminiscent of their three international tournament wins between 2008 and 2012, silverware was secured for the Spanish national team.
Outside of Opta’s top four, the team that progressed the furthest were the Netherlands. After finishing third in Group D, they beat Romania and Turkiye before Ollie Watkins’ last-minute goal denied them a place in the final. Off the pitch the ‘Orange Army’ lit up stadiums with their distinctive bright colours - a sight fans have gotten used to over the years.
Excitement from other nations such as Turkiye and Georgia had viewers hooked. Turkiye’s ‘no holds barred’ approach to aggressive football saw them make it to the quarter-finals - their best performance since 2008. Georgia surpassed expectations, beating Portugal in the group stages before losing their first knockout match. Star-striker Gorges Mikautadze being one of the six Golden Boot winners. Portugal performed largely as expected and topped this group. Captained by 41-year-old Pepe they exited via penalty shootout in the quarter-finals versus France - Cristiano Ronaldo went goalless throughout the whole tournament.
Italy never looked like repeating their 2020 successes. They progressed through their group after finishing second with four points. Switzerland comfortably beat the defending champions 2-0, sending them home after their first knockout fixture. Belgium went out at the same stage - a 1-0 loss to France. A once-dubbed ‘Golden Generation’ of players now ageing, they scrambled through their group with four points and never looked a real threat. Croatia similarly struggled: 38-year-old star-player Luka Modric tried his best to captain his team to a victory. World Cup runners up six-years-ago, they failed to register a win and went home in the group stages.
On the whole a well-run tournament, football is never without its controversies. Two penalty decisions quickly became hot talking-points. Germany had a penalty turned away after the ball struck the arm of Spain’s Marc Cucurella in extra-time of their quarter-final tie. Opposingly, England had a controversial penalty awarded to them in their semi-final match versus the Netherlands. Denzel Dumphries collided with Harry Kane’s boot as the Dutch defender attempted to block the England captain’s effort at goal.
Complaints were made about plastic cups being thrown onto the pitch, targeting players and managers. Serbia went further and threatened to quit the tournament over abusive chants between Balkan fans.
Turkish defender Merih Demiral received a two-match ban for performing a wolf salute - largely seen as an ultranationalist symbol. Jude Bellingham received only a suspended ban for a ‘crotch-grabbing gesture’ versus Slovakia. Celebratory controversy continued after the final match, with select Spanish players recording themselves chanting offensively towards Gibraltar - a British overseas territory.
All in all, this year’s European Championship may not be remembered as a true classic. Suffering most from being preceded by the 2022 World Cup, glimpses from Euro 2024 promise an exciting future for international football. Players and fans can now turn their attention towards their club loyalties as domestic campaigns kick off across the continent.
