Survival at the bottom - premier league relegation fight predictions

The relegation battle is primed to go down to the wire on the final day

Josh Watson
23rd May 2022
Image: Wikimedia Commons
Well here we are - by the time this article is in print the final matches of the 21/22 Premier League will be over. As of now however, one thing is certain - Watford and my beloved Norwich City will be returning to the championship next season, most likely to return the season after next and continue the high low cycle. But before all that - let's try and work out who will be the third team leaving the top 20 this year: Leeds,  Everton or Burnley?

Currently in that 18th spot,  Leeds have had a rough season of 18 losses and by far the worst goal difference of the contenders for relegation. However, there is hope they can make up the points,  with matches against Brighton and Brentford in the upcoming games. When they came up against Brighton earlier this year the sides managed an uneventful nil-nil draw, leaving it up in the air on where it might go this time. Brentford may be more of the same, as it was another draw to them last time - a captivating 2-2. Leeds will likely need more than two points to stay safe - so they will need to do something special to stay in the hunt.

Up a spot to 17th, tied for points with Leeds, is Burnley. With the least won games out of the three contenders, they're going to have to rely on more than their 13 draws to keep them up this season. Things don't get any better when looking at the matches to come. Game one is against Tottenham Hotspur, who currently sit pretty at 5th in the table. However, Burnley were able to take the reverse fixture in February with a surprising 1-nil win at home. They may not get as lucky this time, with Spurs requiring two wins to have a good chance of breaking into the top 4 - they are unlikely to field a second team for this one. Alongside the fact it is an away game the odds seem to be against Burnley - but you can't rule them out. Aston Villa is up next which doesn't look anywhere near as good with a 3 - 1 loss less than a month ago, think we can safely rule any points from that match out. They then round out the year against Newcastle, which they might have some hope for.

Three points there with one or two more from the other should be enough to stay safe

Two points clear of the others and with three games to go, Everton look almost safe to make it through this season. However, with the most losses out of the three and a lower goal difference than Burnley - best not to count the chickens before they hatch. The first of the three against Brentford, their last meeting in the FA cup ending 4 - 1 to Everton. This might be what they need to stay up - a win here will secure them the place thanks to the Leeds vs Burnley match. And they might need to get it there as the remaining matches are against Crystal Palace and Arsenal, who have their own fight to stay in the top 4 to deal with. While a draw might cut it, Everton will be hoping to secure all three points in their next game, otherwise it may not be them that decide who is doing back down. 

Leeds looks most likely to be headed back down to the championship this season - however, both the other teams have formidable opponents in their path. If Leeds can bring their A-game to these last two weeks then Burnley may be at higher risk. By the time you read this in print, the results will be known. And maybe I am right - but the beautiful thing about football is we just don't know.

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