In the previous UK 2024 general election Reform won five seats with 4,117,610 votes, creating a 14.3% vote share (larger than that of the Liberal Democrats). A YouGov poll from a sample of 2465 individuals taken on the 2nd and 3rd of February indicated that the electorate’s voting intentions puts Reform at 25%. This is ahead of the Conservatives who polled at 21% and Labour at 24%. Moreover, a PLMR poll has predicted Reform to win as many as 175 seats, ahead of Labour at a predicted 174 seats but just behind the Conservatives at 178. Importantly, Reform had the largest share of voting intention at 24%.
This unprecedented three-way tie in a typically two-party system stems from predicted advancements that Reform could make in areas like Wales, gaining 23 seats. Currently, the Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West constituency is occupied by a Labour MP, Chi Onwurah. She won with a majority of 11,060 and a vote share of 45.6%. Notably, the Reform candidate Ashton Muncaster was second in the 2024 general election for Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West. He received 7,815 votes with a vote share of 18.9%.
The PLMR poll forecasts that the Newcastle upon Tyne constituencies are to be won by Labour again. Yet interestingly, the surrounding constituencies such as Blaydon and Consett, as well as Gateshead Central and Whickham; are predicted to flip from Labour to Reform. Furthermore, the PLMR poll even predicts that influential Labour figures such as the Deputy PM Anegla Rayner could lose her Ashton-under-Lyne seat to Reform.
Furthermore, the PLMR poll even predicts that influential Labour figures such as the Deputy PM Anegla Rayner could lose her Ashton-under-Lyne seat to Reform.
The trends in these polls demonstrate that Reform can pull votes from both the Conservatives and Labour. This primarily consists of Reform gaining votes in both the older conservatives demographic and the white working class.
These forecasted changes in voting patterns indicate a growing dissatisfaction from the electorate with the current state of the country, suggesting a wider sentiment of disapproval with the past governance of the Tories and the current governance of Labour.
An additional YouGov poll from the 27th of January 2025 recorded that immigration tied with health were the join second most important issues facing the country, at 42%, just behind the economy at 55%. Reform is particularly vocal within the migration discourse. According to the Home Office in 2024, 36,816 migrants crossed the English Channel. In addition, the Office for National Statistics revealed that the UK, in the year ending June 2024 had a net migration of 728,000.
Reform’s heavy campaigning on the issue of migration is appearing to gain a degree of traction given the recent polling figures. Some of their immigration policy initiatives included in the party’s “Our contract with You”, including freezing “non-essential immigration” and leaving the European Convention on Human Rights.
Ultimately, the UK's political landscape is volatile, with views of dissatisfaction towards the Conservatives and Labour, therefore potentially allowing Reform UK to become the dominant political party in UK politics by the time of the next general election.