What does the invasion of Ukraine mean for China?

In the days following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, many global leaders, particularly that of the Western world, made it abundantly clear that they will not deploy troops to aid the country. Instead, it was falsely hoped that the threat of economic sanctions and strongman rhetoric would be enough to quell Russian President Putin’s ambitions, and boy were they wrong.

This has led observers to wonder how other regional powers will interpret the reticence of the Western world towards global conflict, particularly if it involves the encroachment on contentious territories. The most urgent of such scenarios is undoubtedly China’s 70-year itch to reunify itself with Taiwan. 

The China-Taiwan divide is an issue that is steeped in history and subjective interpretations. In essence, China views Taiwan as a breakaway province that will eventually be part of the country again, a view rather unpopular among Taiwanese according to recent polls.

But to answer the question how concerned should we be about China in light of what happened in Ukraine, I fear the answer is not so simple. 

It is undeniable there are eerie similarities. Similar to Putin, China’s ruling Communist Party has for decades touted that the self-governed democratic country of Taiwan is an “inalienable” part of its history and sovereign territory. Chinese President Xi Jinping has also repeatedly warned that Taiwan would “eventually reunite” with China.

Evidently, there have been uneasy parallels that include authoritarian leaders that stoke nationalism, historical claims to a territory and a focused demonisation of specific leaders and parties. However, there are still hopeful telltale signs, particularly in China’s response towards the invasion.

In recent days, we have seen a reasonably solid stance from China on the issue, given the country’s long ties with Russia since the Soviet-era. In a strongly worded statement. The Chinese Foreign Ministry implicitly criticised Russia that “no country should unscrupulously damage other countries’ sovereignty”. What was once a staunch ally of the Russians also decided to abstain from voting on Russia’s military operations instead of exercising their veto power. While this action may seem insignificant, lacking decency even from a human rights perspective, it speaks volume in a diplomatic sense and can even be perceived as a slap in the face for Putin’s ambitions.

It is clear that China has been uneasy with recent developments in Ukraine. Putin may have shown his respect for China by delaying the invasion until after the Winter Olympics, but the response from the Chinese government has been lukewarm and signalled that their support was not unconditional.

Given the global outcry and response towards Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is likely that many leaders have received the message too: any unilateral, brazen military action is unwelcomed. It is also equally likely that this will deter the Chinese government from attempting anything at this moment in time.

Of course, diplomacy is a complicated matter, and many other factors such as geolocation, economic trade and allies have not been taken into account in this analysis. However, call it hopefulness or blind optimism, I do not see Xi’s government attempting anything for now. Lest another war breaks out, we should remember that they are never a lasting solution for any problem.