Both Peter Murrell (Nicola Sturgeon’s husband and the SNP's Chief Executive officer) and Colin Beattie (the party's Treasurer) have been arrested after it was found that £600,000 raised in support of the party's independence drive was unaccounted for. While this scandal has been bad news for the SNP’s polling performance, it is not the sole reason behind their recent slump, which started in late 2022.
But how did the SNP reach this point? In the early 2010s, they were seen as being an unprecedented political success story. From winning a Holyrood majority in 2011, to winning 56 out of 59 Scottish seats in the 2015 General Election (supplanting the Liberal Democrats as the third biggest party), the SNP was making history and establishing itself as a powerful political force. In the wake of the 2016 vote to leave the EU, many assumed that Scottish independence was now an inevitability, with the SNP spurred on by Scotland’s decisive vote to remain.
However, as with many political movements that enjoy sudden bursts of success, this momentum would grind slowly to a halt in the years that followed. After a remarkably lengthy honeymoon period in government, the SNP has started to lose its radical image which propelled it to success.
Scotland’s unique position, in which its people are politically represented by both MSPs in Holyrood and MPs in Westminster, has been a key factor in this decline. Scottish voters have pinned much of the blame for problems created by the Conservative Party on the Scottish government. With standards of living are decreasing nationwide, further fuelled by the cost of living crisis, it is no wonder that Scottish voters have lost enthusiasm for their governing party.
This increase in apathy towards the SNP has played a large role in the recent disappointing polls as the gap between the party and Labour rapidly narrows. These are certainly not ideal circumstances for the party to be struck by such a dramatic scandal, with the outlook for the local and general elections looking increasingly bleak. Likewise, Sturgeon’s plan for the next Holyrood election to be a de facto independence referendum, (with a mandate for independence being reached if the SNP gains over 50% of the vote) now seems to be a virtual impossibility.
This being said, the SNP still has the potential to recover. While support for independence remains high, it is highly unlikely that such a well established pro-independence party will ever lose its political relevance. Humza Yousaf is currently unpopular because he has no record as First Minister and is heavily associated with Sturgeon, but in time he may be able to distance the party from the scandal-ridden leadership of the past.
